democracymeydag
Pakistan today is passing through a brutal phase. Those who believe in peace are advocating for war, those who prized themselves on being the bond of the federation are in a state of suspended animation giving the federation full time to melt down. There is no question that democracy is the best system possible and it is the only long term solution we have. But what do you do when the clear and present danger threatens to destroy you in short term. Will it not imply that in order to save the country for democracy there has to be a short term deviation? This is the argument always presented to derail democracy in the country and impose martial laws. And yet there can be no two views that the state of federation cries for some relief.
It breaks my heart to witness the damage the politicians have done to themselves.  It was not long ago that we all were united against Pervez Musharraf’s emergency and the specter of talbanization. The Charter of Democracy was being considered Pakistan’s Magna Carta. Then politicians somehow started embracing Musharraf’s tragic legacy and now we witness an absolute absence of governance. The federal government headed by the presidency, and not by the premier house, unfortunately has allowed, just like Musharraf, a coterie of sycophants to isolate it from the general masses. Punjab government has its adrenaline rush but little direction. The biggest disappoint however turned out to be the Awami National Party. Its government has been backing the shoddy deal with the terrorists and thugs in Swat.  I am working on a set of proposals regarding the Taliban problem that it will be posted here one of these days but right now I want to discuss the state of affairs and what political dispensation I foresee in the near future.
I know our president is off to Washington to meet Obama. Yet the environment created by the statements of coming from Washington has started changing everything. These things were visible even before the statements. For instance when the concessions to terrorists in Swat was giving us all headaches, it was Pakistan Army which started operation in Mingora region in a desperate attempt to contain the onslaught of the Taliban. The federal and the provincial governments failed to seize the initiative. Those of us who understand the seriousness of the Taliban threat cannot find fault with the Army’s initiative.  The political parties instead must be blamed for not taking a lead in these matters. In fact it seems they all are worried only of their immediate constituencies. Here too People’s Party is losing much for it has become only too unreachable for its basic constituency. Consider this: I voted for the Prime Minister during the elections, and this site was the first and perhaps the only one to endorse Asif Ali Zardari as the president. However even this scribe is now getting worried about the state of affairs in this country.
What is the most likely shape of things to come? It is clear that the Pakistan Army does not want to stage another coup. It has thus far not been able to break free from Musharraf’s controversial legacy. Hence no chance of a full blown coup. The likely outcome could either be fresh elections or then much-discussed Bangladesh model. Fresh elections in the  current scenario seem a bit far fetched. Fresh elections will lead to only fresh instability. Add to it the fact that Nawaz Sharif too has not been able to come up a coherent counter terror policy. The most likely option is of a national government of technocrats. In the likely scenario the federal government, under international and local pressue, will itself call the quits and owing to the multi dimensional crises the country is facing an interim government will be installed for approximately two years with the support of the Supreme Court and indirect help of the PML-N.  This government will dedicate itself to put an end to all these crises. Who will head such a government? Either a veteran politician with an extraordinary knack of administation or then a new face. Of course not Musharraf for the army and its supporters abroad will not want the new set up to be tarnished by Musharraf’s reputation. On the contrary, in order to prove its distance from the new government, the army may allow Musharraf to be dragged in the court and formally prosecuted. Whether the NRO will be subjected to a judicial review or not depends on how the PPP leadership carries itself in the next few days.
Is there any prevention or preemption possible for the political class right now? Of course there is. If the PPP leaders want the current dispensation to continue they will have to be more accessible and prove themselves capable of proactive governance. Likewise the ANP will need to distance itself from the Swat deal, PML-N need to draft its counter-terrorism policy and MQM and other regional parties to show more restraint. These things seem almost impossible but are indeed doable. If not done immediately I do not see the current set up continuing beyond a fortnight or at best three weeks. Meanwhile please keep revisiting the site to read my proposals on ending the Taliban challenge.